Hi,
每年的美國拉斯維加斯消費電子展 (CES)，都反映著未來的趨勢動向。
今年的 CES 連汽車大廠通用汽車也來展出其汽油電池混合環保車，顯示商業世界對環保愈為重視。
Keith
Explore, Exceed & Excel
Keith To's Ideas & Thoughts on NLP, Hypnosis, Coaching, Facilitation, Personal and Business Development. These seem to be nothing related. But from a Systemic Thinking perspective, they share similar nature and processes. 陶兆輝對身心語言程序學、催眠治療學、教練學、輔引學、個人發展及商業發展的純個人看法；它們看似毫不相關，但當你從合整式思維角度來看，它們卻擁有相近的性質及過程；我將每隔數天不斷加入新的文章, 內容絕不敢認為是肯定正確, 旨在拋磚引玉而矣。 (All articles copyrighted by Keith To)
Showing posts with label Signs are Everywhere. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Signs are Everywhere. Show all posts
2008/02/16
2008/02/12
Signs are Everywhere: 執笠有期
Hi,
早前往灣仔一家書店打發時間，這家書店樓高四層 (雖然每層面積也不大)，但只見僅得一名店員，而那名店員卻在地下那層的櫃台睡著了；書架上的書種標貼很多也與書架上的書藉並不相符，加上店門關上，再加上店內宣傳二樓有特價圖書，但原來是三樓才對，我敢肯定，這家店命不久矣，如果我是那名職員，我不會浪費時間睡覺，而會去儘快找新工作。
為什麼我敢這肯定？
只得一名店員，證明生意不佳，或店主管理不善。
店員在睡覺，又再證明生意不佳，或店主管理不善。
書架標貼錯誤，證明書店沒有好的管理及監督。
店門關上，因近日天氣寒冷吧，但關上又怎能迎客？又一管理不善的徵狀。
三樓說成二樓，不理解港人習慣也，港人習慣，地下、閣樓 (此店有閣樓的，但港人又怎會分那不是一樓？)、二樓、三樓，而非地下、閣樓、一樓、二樓吧！現今企業崇尚『放眼世界，本地化管理』，不明本地習性，又怎能成功？
這店不死，那來道理？
這家來自台灣的書店，開業時相當不錯，為何弄至如斯田地？
理由也很簡單－選錯店址！零售業最重要的成功因素就是位置，此店好像位於人流興旺地段，誰不知門外人流年紀偏老，又怎能養活一家時髦的書店，加上門外人流以趕搭巴士為主，誰有興趣看書？
能否有救？有！
小弟愚見，先拆掉門前店門及櫥窗 (書店誰看櫥窗？)，開放顧客入門的路線 (不要跟我說『大塵』及浪費空調)；再移走地下陳列的雜誌、台版旅遊書藉等，改放更多最熱門的自我改進、股票投資、商業管理類、蔡瀾、陶傑等名家的書藉；再從總公司派人親自駐店，確保管理質素。
這些全都是白痴如我輩都能想出來的白痴做法，偏是身在其中而不覺，慢慢等死！
Keith
Explore, Exceed & Excel
早前往灣仔一家書店打發時間，這家書店樓高四層 (雖然每層面積也不大)，但只見僅得一名店員，而那名店員卻在地下那層的櫃台睡著了；書架上的書種標貼很多也與書架上的書藉並不相符，加上店門關上，再加上店內宣傳二樓有特價圖書，但原來是三樓才對，我敢肯定，這家店命不久矣，如果我是那名職員，我不會浪費時間睡覺，而會去儘快找新工作。
為什麼我敢這肯定？
只得一名店員，證明生意不佳，或店主管理不善。
店員在睡覺，又再證明生意不佳，或店主管理不善。
書架標貼錯誤，證明書店沒有好的管理及監督。
店門關上，因近日天氣寒冷吧，但關上又怎能迎客？又一管理不善的徵狀。
三樓說成二樓，不理解港人習慣也，港人習慣，地下、閣樓 (此店有閣樓的，但港人又怎會分那不是一樓？)、二樓、三樓，而非地下、閣樓、一樓、二樓吧！現今企業崇尚『放眼世界，本地化管理』，不明本地習性，又怎能成功？
這店不死，那來道理？
這家來自台灣的書店，開業時相當不錯，為何弄至如斯田地？
理由也很簡單－選錯店址！零售業最重要的成功因素就是位置，此店好像位於人流興旺地段，誰不知門外人流年紀偏老，又怎能養活一家時髦的書店，加上門外人流以趕搭巴士為主，誰有興趣看書？
能否有救？有！
小弟愚見，先拆掉門前店門及櫥窗 (書店誰看櫥窗？)，開放顧客入門的路線 (不要跟我說『大塵』及浪費空調)；再移走地下陳列的雜誌、台版旅遊書藉等，改放更多最熱門的自我改進、股票投資、商業管理類、蔡瀾、陶傑等名家的書藉；再從總公司派人親自駐店，確保管理質素。
這些全都是白痴如我輩都能想出來的白痴做法，偏是身在其中而不覺，慢慢等死！
Keith
Explore, Exceed & Excel
2008/02/08
Signs are Everywhere: 美國正步入衰退?
Hi,
美國正步入衰退嗎?
這是不少人擔心的情況，怕的是美國經濟影嚮香港，但我絕不為此擔憂，為什麼呢？
所謂衰退，一般的定義為『連續兩季的季比國內生產總值(GDP)出現負增長』，並由美國的國家經濟研究局認定，但近六十年來，美國的每次衰退平均時間只維持10個月，只要有所準備，又有什麼可怕？
美國進入衰退差不多可以肯定的，根據經濟學人的發現，美國兩大傳媒：華盛頓郵報及紐約時報，在本年初提到『衰退』一字大幅增加，與以往的經濟衰退時相似，究竟是事實影嚮傳媒，還是傳媒影嚮事實就不得而知了。
Keith
Explore, Exceed & Excel
P.S. 可能太久沒有撰寫Signs are Everywhere了，這個欄目的目的在於鼓勵大家觀察訊號，發現事情發展，掌握趨勢。
美國正步入衰退嗎?
這是不少人擔心的情況，怕的是美國經濟影嚮香港，但我絕不為此擔憂，為什麼呢？
所謂衰退，一般的定義為『連續兩季的季比國內生產總值(GDP)出現負增長』，並由美國的國家經濟研究局認定，但近六十年來，美國的每次衰退平均時間只維持10個月，只要有所準備，又有什麼可怕？
美國進入衰退差不多可以肯定的，根據經濟學人的發現，美國兩大傳媒：華盛頓郵報及紐約時報，在本年初提到『衰退』一字大幅增加，與以往的經濟衰退時相似，究竟是事實影嚮傳媒，還是傳媒影嚮事實就不得而知了。
Keith
Explore, Exceed & Excel
P.S. 可能太久沒有撰寫Signs are Everywhere了，這個欄目的目的在於鼓勵大家觀察訊號，發現事情發展，掌握趨勢。
2007/10/16
Signs are Everywhere: A Great Magazine in China
Hi,
Recently I went to China for a short break.
I wandered around the street and found a magzaine in a book shop. It was just 6 dollars, but a great magazine. Colour printing, quality paper, clear editing, informative articles with points. It was just 6 dollars!
Quality of magazines and books always reflects the quality of people. People in Mainland China are not only improving their "hardware", but also their "software" now.
They are improving and if we are not, we can't be "special" even we are in a "Special Administration Region"!
Keith
Explore, Exceed & Excel
Recently I went to China for a short break.
I wandered around the street and found a magzaine in a book shop. It was just 6 dollars, but a great magazine. Colour printing, quality paper, clear editing, informative articles with points. It was just 6 dollars!
Quality of magazines and books always reflects the quality of people. People in Mainland China are not only improving their "hardware", but also their "software" now.
They are improving and if we are not, we can't be "special" even we are in a "Special Administration Region"!
Keith
Explore, Exceed & Excel
2007/01/03
Signs are Everywhere: Mini Prediction for 2007
Hi,
Every year I do some predictions for the year. I've done this for the past several years. I do it simply by means of observing trends. My sole objective of doing predictions is to encourage people to see the bigger picture.
As I had mentioned some times before, 2007 is my last year of publicly presenting my prediction. I am lucky as my guesses are quite accurate in the past years. When it becomes too accurate, I really afraid that someone will rely on my predictions. That's not my intention. I think that I had already achieved my objective of encouraging people to see bigger and farther. So, 2007 should be a good ending.
My 2007 Prediction Seminar is scheduled on March 6 2007 (7:30pm-9:30pm). This is an internal event. Only participants of my past programs and their friends are invited. You can email me at keithto@keithto.com to book your seat now. In your email, please mention "2007 Prediction" and the number of seats you need.
In my 2006 Prediction, I mentioned the Hang Seng Index will rise until the end of the year. In December, many people asked me how far it will go. My answer was it would at least hit 20,000. Now, it had already hit 20,000. How far will it go?
I can only guess according to my observation. In December, most of the people said that we should be very cautious when investing in the stock market. When everyone was cautious, it could be quite safe.
But when the HS Index hit 20,000 at the end of last year, people becomes more and more aggressive. Some even predict it will go up to 21,000 or higher. Then, we must be really cautious now.
If you want to play safe, it is now the right time to sell all your stock. The market might still go up, but as everyone can tell you that no one can accurately estimate the peak.
I will wait for another 3 to 4 more weeks till the end of January. But I will be very careful to observe closely. When there are more positive predictions about the market, I will withdraw from it. People listen to predictions, particularly those by the professionals. They will become more and more aggressive and the market becomes more and more dangerous.
As I always tell my friends: Don't be too serious about my predictions. They are all from my personal observations. I can be very wrong. Don't trust me, trust yourself.
Keith
Explore, Exceed & Excel
Every year I do some predictions for the year. I've done this for the past several years. I do it simply by means of observing trends. My sole objective of doing predictions is to encourage people to see the bigger picture.
As I had mentioned some times before, 2007 is my last year of publicly presenting my prediction. I am lucky as my guesses are quite accurate in the past years. When it becomes too accurate, I really afraid that someone will rely on my predictions. That's not my intention. I think that I had already achieved my objective of encouraging people to see bigger and farther. So, 2007 should be a good ending.
My 2007 Prediction Seminar is scheduled on March 6 2007 (7:30pm-9:30pm). This is an internal event. Only participants of my past programs and their friends are invited. You can email me at keithto@keithto.com to book your seat now. In your email, please mention "2007 Prediction" and the number of seats you need.
In my 2006 Prediction, I mentioned the Hang Seng Index will rise until the end of the year. In December, many people asked me how far it will go. My answer was it would at least hit 20,000. Now, it had already hit 20,000. How far will it go?
I can only guess according to my observation. In December, most of the people said that we should be very cautious when investing in the stock market. When everyone was cautious, it could be quite safe.
But when the HS Index hit 20,000 at the end of last year, people becomes more and more aggressive. Some even predict it will go up to 21,000 or higher. Then, we must be really cautious now.
If you want to play safe, it is now the right time to sell all your stock. The market might still go up, but as everyone can tell you that no one can accurately estimate the peak.
I will wait for another 3 to 4 more weeks till the end of January. But I will be very careful to observe closely. When there are more positive predictions about the market, I will withdraw from it. People listen to predictions, particularly those by the professionals. They will become more and more aggressive and the market becomes more and more dangerous.
As I always tell my friends: Don't be too serious about my predictions. They are all from my personal observations. I can be very wrong. Don't trust me, trust yourself.
Keith
Explore, Exceed & Excel
2006/11/26
Signs are Everywhere: Security Check of Casinos in Macau
Hi,
I am just back from Macau with my family.
I took my dad and mom to all the new and old casinos in Macau. They haven't been to Macau for years.
After you have visited nearly all the casinos in Macau, you will understand that the "old" and "new" ones are different, not just about their magnificent decorations and advanced gambling equipment.
They are in totally different Operating Systems!
Just take an example of their security check. Really I don't understand why they need to have security check before they "alllow" you to go into their casinos. I know that it is about security, but they can use some other ways, might be a bit more complicated to achieve the same effects. In Las Vagus, you just can't see any of these. You can go into a casino without noticing you are already there. This is their clever design.
Most businesses, including casinos, want a large traffic flow. The most important single point in creating a large traffic is the Point of Entry. This is just a simple logic but many businesses do not get it right. The more traffic goes in, the more traffic inside!
OK, back to Macau. The "old" casinos operate a very strict security control. They check and check. Their concern might be just their own safety coming first. Furthermore, their security guards are getting used to their usual rude and impolite manner.
For the "new" casinos, it is very easy to get through and their guards are polite, too. I have done a experiment. I can go into 3 "new" casinos easily without any interruption, but I was being searched and searched in another 3 "old" casinos. They even did not allowed me to take my bag with me.
That might be one of the reasons that there are so many people in those "new" casinos!
This is again another example of slow and reluctant response to changes. The world had changed but we do not change accordingly or in advance. We are the one to suffer, but we might just complain and blame the world!
Keith
Explore, Exceed & Excel
I am just back from Macau with my family.
I took my dad and mom to all the new and old casinos in Macau. They haven't been to Macau for years.
After you have visited nearly all the casinos in Macau, you will understand that the "old" and "new" ones are different, not just about their magnificent decorations and advanced gambling equipment.
They are in totally different Operating Systems!
Just take an example of their security check. Really I don't understand why they need to have security check before they "alllow" you to go into their casinos. I know that it is about security, but they can use some other ways, might be a bit more complicated to achieve the same effects. In Las Vagus, you just can't see any of these. You can go into a casino without noticing you are already there. This is their clever design.
Most businesses, including casinos, want a large traffic flow. The most important single point in creating a large traffic is the Point of Entry. This is just a simple logic but many businesses do not get it right. The more traffic goes in, the more traffic inside!
OK, back to Macau. The "old" casinos operate a very strict security control. They check and check. Their concern might be just their own safety coming first. Furthermore, their security guards are getting used to their usual rude and impolite manner.
For the "new" casinos, it is very easy to get through and their guards are polite, too. I have done a experiment. I can go into 3 "new" casinos easily without any interruption, but I was being searched and searched in another 3 "old" casinos. They even did not allowed me to take my bag with me.
That might be one of the reasons that there are so many people in those "new" casinos!
This is again another example of slow and reluctant response to changes. The world had changed but we do not change accordingly or in advance. We are the one to suffer, but we might just complain and blame the world!
Keith
Explore, Exceed & Excel
2006/11/20
Signs are Everywhere: Established 1928
Hi,
I am just back from Macau on Sunday. I went there to conduct the NLP Practitioner Training. After completion of the program, I went to buy some bakery products. Macau are famous for some kinds of bakery items.
I was quite tired of those famous brands like X Kee and X X Yuen. I want something different. So I go around to search. I found a small bakery with "Established 1928" in their logo. It sounds good. Though there was not too many customers (actually, there was just one single customer) inside but I still bought from them.
After returning home, I tasted some of the products. They are really bad.
I was wrong. I mistakenly interpreted the "Established 1928" as a sign of good quality. It is just an artificial sign created by the owner, but not the emergent sign we should look for.
"Established 1928" can be a lie, but I am not saying that they are lying. They can still exist since 1928, might be just because they owned the property so that they can run the business under a very low cost.
The sign I should look for is the traffic in their shop. If they are really good, they should have returning customers.
They have the usual packaging boxes (I saw them at the back of their shop) but they do not use them. They just give me the products inside a plastic bag. This is a sign of cutting cost and a sign of inconsistency. These are bad signs.
Lesson Learned: Look for Emergent Signs but not Artificial Signs!
Keith
I am just back from Macau on Sunday. I went there to conduct the NLP Practitioner Training. After completion of the program, I went to buy some bakery products. Macau are famous for some kinds of bakery items.
I was quite tired of those famous brands like X Kee and X X Yuen. I want something different. So I go around to search. I found a small bakery with "Established 1928" in their logo. It sounds good. Though there was not too many customers (actually, there was just one single customer) inside but I still bought from them.
After returning home, I tasted some of the products. They are really bad.
I was wrong. I mistakenly interpreted the "Established 1928" as a sign of good quality. It is just an artificial sign created by the owner, but not the emergent sign we should look for.
"Established 1928" can be a lie, but I am not saying that they are lying. They can still exist since 1928, might be just because they owned the property so that they can run the business under a very low cost.
The sign I should look for is the traffic in their shop. If they are really good, they should have returning customers.
They have the usual packaging boxes (I saw them at the back of their shop) but they do not use them. They just give me the products inside a plastic bag. This is a sign of cutting cost and a sign of inconsistency. These are bad signs.
Lesson Learned: Look for Emergent Signs but not Artificial Signs!
Keith
2006/11/13
Signs are Everywhere: MTR is "Killing" Hong Kong!?
Hi,
You can find many people walking on a moving escalator only in 3 cities in the world. They are New York, Tokyo and Hong Kong.
People are busy, the cities are busy and they are prosperous!
This can be one of the informal indexes of the prosperity of a city!
There is less and less people walking on escalators now in Hong Kong than in the past. Does this tell you something?
BTW, have you noticed that MTR is now discouraging people walking on the escalators. I know that it is about safety.
Safety and risks are always on the oposite sides of a spectrum. In most situations, prosperity and risks are on the same side too.
I am not encouraging risks taking and I am not encouraging walking on the escalators. But this is a emerging fact!
Keith
You can find many people walking on a moving escalator only in 3 cities in the world. They are New York, Tokyo and Hong Kong.
People are busy, the cities are busy and they are prosperous!
This can be one of the informal indexes of the prosperity of a city!
There is less and less people walking on escalators now in Hong Kong than in the past. Does this tell you something?
BTW, have you noticed that MTR is now discouraging people walking on the escalators. I know that it is about safety.
Safety and risks are always on the oposite sides of a spectrum. In most situations, prosperity and risks are on the same side too.
I am not encouraging risks taking and I am not encouraging walking on the escalators. But this is a emerging fact!
Keith
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)